Australia is blessed with many natural resources, including oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, lithium, and lots of wind and sunshine. Energy production should not be a problem for us, with access to both fossil fuels and renewable power sources. And yet both political parties have made a grossly politicised hash of setting a long-term, comprehensive, and sensible power strategy.
Quite rationally, we have committed to various global climate change initiatives and sought to reduce fossil fuel reliance and introduce more renewable energy sources. Blessed with this vast potential for cheap fuel, Australia has spent countless sums developing renewable energy with the stated intention of mostly ridding itself of fossil fuels. According to the Statistical Review of World Energy, we find evidence of the pace of change. In 2023, Australia produced 28% of its electricity from wind and solar, and solar alone nearly eclipsed natural gas. Since 2010, solar electricity production is up by a factor of 45, whereas coal consumption has been cut by a third.
If there is a place where wind and solar technologies should work, it is Australia. Our vast coastline and diverse geography provide good conditions for wind energy turbines, and the sun shines brightly and consistently. According to a detailed country-by-country analysis by the World Bank, Australia ranks near the top in global solar potential, and some of its largest commercial solar farms can achieve capacity factors above 40% – roughly four times Germany’s average annual performance. By further comparison, similar facilities in the US average about 25%.
Source: World Bank
Unfortunately, accessing these resources, and providing a workable road-map for transitioning to a more diverse and green energy economy has seemingly been beyond the capabilities of our political leaders. What we have experienced instead is a picture of skyrocketing electricity prices and electricity shortages are sure to follow.
In June of 2022, Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) seized up, and spot trading in wholesale electricity was suspended for nine days. Unprecedented intervention from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) was required to stabilize the situation:
“Scrambling to meet supply shortfalls forecast in Queensland and New South Wales for June 14, AEMO was forced to activate 5 GW of generation that hadn’t bid into the market ‘through direct interventions,’ said AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman. While the grid operator managed to avoid load shedding, those interventions, which follow a series of similar near-misses, showed ‘it was no longer possible to reliably operate the spot market or the power system this way,’ Westerman said.”
A predictable set of blame shifting followed, with proponents of renewables arguing that the crisis merely proved more investment was needed to further quicken the pace of the green transition, and the buildout continued apace across the country. Fast forward to the present time. With even more wind and solar installed, grid stability is following suit:
“NSW Premier Chris Minns’ warning to locals to turn off their dishwashers has been slammed by the Coalition as the State braces for blackouts amid a sweltering heatwave. It comes as the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) promised to use its emergency powers to ensure NSW had sufficient electricity supply as it swelters through the heat.”
Temperatures across NSW have soared in recent days – we have just experienced the hottest year in recent history – putting additional strain on the energy grid while several coal-fired power stations are offline with a range of approved maintenance services. Meanwhile, the Minns Government urged residents to turn off or not use their appliances on Wednesday afternoon (last week) to reduce the risk of overloading the ‘tight’ energy reserve.
“We are asking you not run your dishwasher, not to run your washing machine this afternoon… and you’ll be helping the grid,’ Mr Minns said.”
Australia is vulnerable to an energy crisis, yet its political leaders seem deaf to the warnings and blind to its true causes. Having demonized traditional sources of energy, Australia is now all but certain to run short of them just as the vulnerability of intermittent renewables reaches escape velocity.
As one of the most resource-rich nations in the world, Australia is more than capable of providing superabundance to our relatively small population. Surely a national summit to work out an appropriate path is not beyond us. Can politicians ever rise above their partisan positions to come up with a strategy to fix this mess?
Source: Aust Govt Dept of Climate Change
