Quick Bites | The World’s Oil Reserves & Prices

One of the few commodities to buck the trend of a stellar 2025 was crude oil. Whereas precious metals soared, and industrial metals spiked, the price of a barrel of oil dropped around 20%. In this edition of QB, we have a look at where the world’s oil reserves are and a brief update on factors influencing prices at present. From the visual below, we note that just 4 countries control more than half of the world’s proven oil reserves. Also noteworthy: despite the energy transition, fossil fuels still account for nearly 70% of global energy demand.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Oil remains one of the most strategically important resources in the global economy. It powers transportation systems, underpins industrial activity, and continues to shape geopolitics and trade flows. While renewable energy is growing, oil still plays a dominant role in meeting global energy needs.

The graphic above ranks countries by the size of their proven oil reserves at the end of 2024. The data comes from OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025. Figures represent proven oil reserves as of year-end 2024 and are measured in billions of barrels. The data includes conventional crude oil as well as oil sands.

Four Countries Dominate Global Oil Reserves

Global oil reserves are highly concentrated. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves (about 300 billion barrels), but US sanctions have limited its ability to export crude and fully monetize this resource. The state of the industry’s infrastructure in Venezuela is seriously degraded and will take years and billions of dollars to recover to its earlier production levels.

President Trump has said the US would take control of Venezuela’s oil reserves and invite American companies to invest in rebuilding the country’s weakened oil industry following a military operation that captured President Nicolás Maduro. The situation remains “fluid”. Saudi Arabia follows the South American country with 267 billion barrels. Iran, Canada, and Iraq round out the top 5.

Venezuela and US gas prices

Trump’s drive to open up Venezuela’s oil riches, potentially subsidising investors, has strained relations with oil executives in Texas, who have been angered by his pursuit of ever-lower crude prices. (Trump wants lower oil prices to keep inflation in check and enable interest rates to come down.)

The ire in the US shale oil industry — where many executives bankrolled the president’s return to office — echoes a frustration in the MAGA movement that Trump is neglecting his “America First” mantra. But problems in Texas’s oil industry are mounting, as cheaper oil forces producers to idle rigs needed to keep production ticking higher.

The US is the biggest producer in the world, but its pivotal shale oil production requires continuous drilling to keep growing. The number of operating US oil rigs last week was down by 15% year on year.

The Role of OPEC and the Middle East

Many of the world’s largest oil reserves are held by OPEC members, particularly in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates anchor the region’s dominance.

These countries benefit from low extraction costs and large, easily accessible reserves. As a result, Middle Eastern producers are expected to remain critical suppliers even as global demand growth slows.

Oil Sands and Non-OPEC Producers

Canada stands out among non-OPEC countries, ranking fourth globally with 163 billion barrels of reserves. Most of Canada’s reserves come from oil sands, which are more expensive and carbon-intensive to extract. Russia and the US also rank among the top 10.

Taken together, the data highlights how unevenly oil resources are distributed and why oil-rich nations continue to have significant economic and geopolitical power.

Geopolitics could turn the oil market around

Most analysts expect the global oil market to remain weak, with production outstripping demand. But events in Iran in recent days as well as developments in the Russia/Ukraine war could upend those forecasts. Iranian rioters are severely testing their brutal regime, which seems more vulnerable than it has in been in years. A collapse in the Iranian regime could disrupt oil production. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukraine may be tempted to target Russian oil facilities as the political stalemate appears to be nearing its apogee.

In any event, oil price weakness is not a given: global politics has a way of disrupting even the most confident of price forecasts, and we will closely monitor events as they unfold.

Crude oil at 5 year low

Source: Trading Economics