Whilst this View is focused on the charts and tables produced by Treasury in the FY25 Budget papers, I must start with a cautionary note. Treasury is good at reporting what has happened in Australia and presenting short-term forecasting for the world economy, but they are notoriously poor at forecasting budget outcomes.
Key forecasts can be summarised as:
. Low household consumption growth;
. Low dwelling investment and therefore housing starts;
. Wages growth to show moderate real growth (i.e. above inflation);
. Terms of trade to deteriorate (a trade deficit to appear in FY26);
. Net immigration to slow (but still adding 1% to the population in FY25).
Read the full article here: The 2024-25 Federal Budget – Commentary by John Abernethy